Forecasting Occupational Structure in a Developing Economy: A Case Study of India

Some of the recent projections of manpower requirements have relied on the assumption that the structure of employment by occupations will remain fixed over the entire period of projections. Using Indian data, the author of this book has shown that this is an implausible assumption, and the projections based on such assumptions are likely to be erroneous. The author, therefore, suggests to develop a methodology of manpower forecasting which accounts for the inter-temporal variations in the structure of employment. It is further argued that such a methodology would also be helpful for planning expansion of education in the country.
Two structural methods?namely, the Markov probability formulation and the RAS adjustment technique?and a single equation regression model (which posits that demand for skills are determined by production technology) of occupational forecasting are chosen in this study to assessing the predictive power of each of these techniques.
Much of this book is devoted to highlight the theoretical details and the data requirements of these techniques reference. This is followed by an application of these techniques with Indian data?both at macro and micro levels.
The results of this study favour the use of RAS method as a limited information model of occupational forecasting in economies which lack detailed manpower statistics.
While the study in question is based on Indian data, it is surmised that the findings of this book would be of considerable importance for other developing countries as well. Moreover, it is hoped that the methodology and techniques illustrated will stimulate further research into factors affecting evolution of occupational coefficients in the context of manpower planning in developing economies